Copper River Salmon Forecast

Apr 22, 2021

In summary, 

2021 COPPER RIVER CHINOOK SALMON FORECAST SUMMARY

The 2021 Copper River Chinook salmon total run point estimate is 37,000 fish (80% prediction interval: 22,000–53,000 fish). The recent 10-year average (2011–2020) Copper River Chinook salmon total run is 48,000 fish. Subtracting the lower bound sustainable escapement goal of 24,000 fish from the total run forecast results in a common property harvest point estimate (all fisheries) of 13,000 fish (range: 0–29,000 fish).

2021 COPPER RIVER SOCKEYE SALMON FORECAST SUMMARY

The 2021 wild Copper River sockeye salmon total run point estimate is 1,296,000 fish (80% prediction interval: 724,000– 1,869,000 fish). The recent 10-year average (2011–2020) Copper River wild sockeye salmon total run is 2,070,000 fish. Gulkana Hatchery sockeye salmon total run is predicted to be 51,000 fish (80% prediction interval: 28,000–73,000 fish) for a total Copper River sockeye salmon run (wild + hatchery production) of 1,347,000 fish (80% prediction interval: 749,000–1,945,000 fish). Total Copper River sockeye salmon common property harvest (all fisheries) is predicted to be 844,000 fish (80% prediction interval: 429,000–1,259,000 fish) with a CCP harvest of 652,000 fish (80% prediction interval: 237,000–1,067,000 fish).

The source document for this summary is available at ADF&G's website. The five page document explains how these numbers were derived and information about other PWS salmon runs for this year.